Fed sees inflation topping 5% in 2022 and then falling rapidly due to higher rates

The Fed also plans to raise the rate to as high as 3.8% by 2023, according to its latest “dot plot.” After that, rates are forecast to decline.

The bank’s more hawkish approach after several years of heavily stimulating the economy comes in the wake of another poor reading on inflation. The consumer price index jumped 1% in May to push the increase over the past year to a 40-year high of 8.6%.

The Fed prefers another measure known as the personal consumption expenditures index as a better gauge of inflation. The PCE index has also risen a sharp 6.3% as of the 12 months ended in April.

By the end of this year, the Fed predicts a 5.2% rate of inflation as measured by the PCE index. That’s up from its 4.3% forecast in March and 2.6% as recently as December.

By jacking up interest rates, the Fed expects inflation to slow sharply to 2.6% by the end of 2023 and 2.2% by 2024, an optimistic forecast not shared widely by Wall Street economists.

The Fed also predicts the economy will weaken but not fall into recession.

Gross domestic product is forecast to increase just 1.7% in 2022, down from a prior 2.8% estimate. The economy would also grow just 1.7% in 2023 before picking up slightly in the following year.

The U.S. unemmployment rate, now near a 54-year low of 3.6%, is seen edging up slightly this year and rising to 4.1% by 2024.

If the Fed’s forecasts are spot on, the central bank signaled it would be able to lower rates again by 2024. The central bank predicts its short-term rate would fall to 3.4% from 3.8%.

Given the Fed’s poor forecasting record over the past year, economists say it will take time to see if the central bank’s tougher medicine does the job.