NFL MVP odds: The case for Trey Lance


With NFL teams reporting to training camp, the next move on our end is to find the MVP futures worth a wager before the season starts. This will be a series, with four to five candidates looking like solid bets, to me at least.

Our first look was at Tom Brady, and we circled back to the betting favorite in Josh Allen for our second target.

Now we turn to the young gun with a tantalizing payout: Trey Lance.

Trey Lance’s 2022 MVP odds

Trey Lance is currently +5000 to win MVP on DraftKings and +4000 on FanDuel, the 17th-highest odds among quarterbacks.

Why Trey Lance Makes Sense

Of all the quarterbacks I’ll be highlighting, this is my favorite value play by far.

Patrick Mahomes is the true inspiration for considering Trey Lance to win 2022 MVP. What Mahomes did back in 2018 was simple: he inherited a playoff team from Alex Smith and piled up monster numbers in his first season as a starter.

Is Trey Lance going to be as good as Patrick Mahomes? That’s not the point. Lance is inheriting what I consider to be one of the top rosters in the NFC. The 49ers went to the Super Bowl in 2019, suffered a rash of injuries that kept them down in 2020, got healthy and made it to the NFC Championship this past season.

Most of the key contributors and coaches are still here. Now, Lance has had a redshirt season to get acquainted with the offense, and it’s full steam ahead. There are so many great quarterbacks in this league, no one is denying that, but I see Lance’s ceiling as one of the highest out there. He can run, he can pass, and as long as Deebo Samuel is starting Week 1, he has all the weapons he needs on offense.

More than that, this 49ers team should be in the playoffs. It’s not unheard of to think they could take down Los Angeles for the NFC West title. If San Francisco is one of the NFC’s top teams by January, and Lance puts up explosive numbers, why couldn’t he take home MVP too?

Second Year QB Trend

This is a brief section but deserves some more attention. We already mentioned how Mahomes, in his second NFL season and first as a starter, won the MVP in 2018. That is pancaked between two other memorable second-year QB seasons.

In 2017, Carson Wentz was on track to win MVP in his second year before tearing his ACL in Week 14. In 2019, Lamar Jackson did win MVP in his second season in the league.

There’s something about that “fresh face” that attracts voters come season’s end.

Potential Lance Statistics

While college stats are not predictive, we’ll highlight Lance’s lone season as a starter in order to showcase the type of QB he is.

His 2019 season at North Dakota State was a stellar one, as Lance finished with 2,786 passing yards (9.7 YPA), 28 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 1,100 rushing yards and 14 rushing TDs. 

By far the most impressive thing in that stat line to me is the 0 interceptions. We mentioned it in the Josh Allen piece, but a strong TD:INT ratio goes a long way for this award. The competition is completely different, but that’s just phenomenal stuff, and that rushing strength is absolutely beautiful.

Kyle Shanahan has certainly done a good job of scheming up creative offensive plays, and with a quarterback like Lance at the helm, I’m excited to see what San Francisco can do this season. Love him for fantasy football, love his season-long props and love him to win MVP at +5000. 

Final Word

I love this futures bet. Yes, I highlighted some of the favorites to win this award, but that’s because their case truly is so compelling.

This is where the real fun begins. Lance brings tremendous odds and checks off a lot of boxes I’d want to see in a potential MVP. He’s in a terrific situation and has been handed the keys. Time to hit the highway kid, bring us home the win.





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