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When the Stanley Cup Final begins on Wednesday night, the Tampa Bay Lightning know what to expect out of starting goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. But for the Colorado Avalanche, uncertainty exists. Head coach Jared Bednar has not indicated whether Darcy Kuemper or Pavel Francouz will man the crease in Game 1.
What is clear, however, is that both the Lightning and Avalanche have been staunch defensively thus far in the postseason. The Lightning have given up an average of just 2.41 goals per game, while the Avalanche – at 2.86 – aren’t far behind.
Hard work and systems have played a major role in each team’s success. But goaltending has as well, and the importance of the position will ramp up even further during the Stanley Cup Final.
Here’s what to expect in what I feel is a very intriguing goalie matchup.
Colorado Avalanche (1) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (3)
Darcy Kuemper (COL): 10 GP, 6-2, 2.65 GAA, .897 SV%
Pavel Francouz (COL): 6 GP, 4-6, 2.86 GAA, .906 SV%
Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL): 17 GP, 12-5, 2.27 GAA, .928 SV%
The biggest question mark for the Avalanche leading into the Stanley Cup Final is unequivocally goaltending. Namely, who will start Game 1 against the Lightning.
Kuemper hasn’t played since May 31, when he left Game 1 of the Western Conference final with an upper-body injury. Pavel Francouz took over and won four straight games against the Edmonton Oilers.
To me, it should be an easy decision for Avalanche head coach Jared Bednar. Start Kuemper. He was the No. 1 goaltender for the Avs all season, winning 37 games and posting a .921 save percentage.
Francouz played backup minutes during the regular season – when healthy. He posted a .916 save percentage but started just 18 games.
Colorado GM Joe Sakic gave up a first-round pick last summer to acquire Kuemper for this exact moment. Winning the Stanley Cup requires elite goaltending, which Kuemper provided for most of the season.
But here’s the conundrum: Kuemper has been serviceable but not great so far this postseason. And he’s missed significant playing time. An eye injury in the first round against the Nashville Predators prevented Kuemper from finishing the series. Then he missed nearly the entire third round matchup against the Oilers.
If Kuemper starts Game 1, which I think is likely given that he backed up Francouz in Game 4 against Edmonton, keep an eye on his footwork. At 6-foot-5, Kuemper is a big goaltender. And he uses his size to his advantage by playing a relatively strong positional game.
But for me, Kuemper’s skating and lack of explosiveness are areas of concern. At times he drifts between destinations and lacks precision. Not only does that make rebound saves more difficult, I think it also hurts his puck tracking.
Kuemper was beaten clean too often in the second round against St. Louis. And he struggled to find and control shots through traffic. Against the Lightning, that can’t happen. Tampa Bay is outstanding at getting pucks and bodies to the front of the net.
But that’s actually a reason why I don’t think Francouz is likely to be Colorado’s starting goaltender against the Lightning. At six-foot, Francouz is undersized. And that’s problematic against Tampa Bay, a team that just knocked out the New York Rangers and likely Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin with several screened shots from the point.
Francouz did his job against Nashville and Edmonton, going 6-0 and posting a .906 save percentage. But it was the eye test against the Oilers that concerned me. Francouz made some huge saves, but he also struggled to get across when the puck moved laterally.
A big part of that is structural. Francouz has a tendency to get low and wide in his stance when the play travels downhill toward him. That locks his feet in place and prevents him from rotating – and pushing – efficiently.
So while I think Kuemper has struggled to find a rhythm in this season’s playoffs, he has size and experience on his side. He’s well rested. And he’s has had plenty of practice time to get his game dialed in.
The Avalanche have been an absolute steamroller all season. They’ve only lost two games in the postseason, both to the St. Louis Blues in the second round. Goaltending hasn’t been much of a factor yet for Colorado.
That’s about to change. Because if recent games are any indicator, the Lightning are going to be the most formidable offensive opponent Colorado has faced thus far.
I have no doubt that if the Avalanche are to hoist the Stanley Cup, it will require a big performance in goal. And history is on Colorado’s side. Kuemper is 4-2 lifetime against the Lightning with a .920 save percentage.
I’m always cautious with career numbers against certain teams. I don’t think they always tell the full story for goaltenders. But not this time. Andrei Vasilevskiy’s worst career statistics are against the Avalanche.
The Lightning netminder has only beaten Colorado once in five tries. His save percentage in those games is just .877 – his lowest against any NHL team.
It makes sense given that Colorado is one of the most dynamic offensive teams that the NHL has seen in recent memory. But it does give me pause with Vasilevskiy, because there are very few teams that he’s historically struggled against.
The saving grace for the Lightning is that ‘The Big Cat’ has once again been a dominant force in the postseason. Despite a sluggish start against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round and allowing nine goals combined in Games 1 and 2 against the Rangers, Vasilevskiy quickly regained form. In three series-clinching performances so far this postseason, the Lightning netminder has allowed just two goals.
Vasilevskiy has won the Stanley Cup in back-to-back seasons and quickly cemented his legacy as one of the greatest clutch performers in the history of the sport. Since 2020, he’s a perfect 11-0 in potential elimination games. And Vasilevskiy has an NHL-record six series-clinching shutouts to his name, the latest coming against the Florida Panthers to close out the sound round.
There’s been a lot of talk about Vasilevskiy’s vulnerability on shots aimed high on his blocker side. And there is truth to it. Vasilevskiy has been beaten an inordinate amount of times over his right shoulder.
I’ve noticed that when Vasilevskiy is peering around traffic, his weight tends to load up heavily on his right leg. That can cause him to lock in position off the proper angle, unable to make a final lateral adjustment before the shot is released. And once the shot is coming, Vasilevskiy has a habit of sliding into the shot rather than reacting cleanly with the blocker hand.
No doubt the Avalanche will look to target high blocker side on Vasilevskiy. But I don’t think it will be their main focus. Colorado will look to take a page from the Rangers, when they were able to score early in the series against Vasilevskiy and the Lightning.
The key to New York’s scoring was moving the puck quickly through middle ice, and releasing the shot immediately inside the near post. Hitting the middle of the net won’t be good enough against Vasilevskiy. His explosiveness and flexibility almost always gives him a chance to make the save. But if Vasilevskiy is moving – like any goaltender – there are holes. And Colorado knows it has to be diligent about shot placement.
The Rangers put more than 30 shots on Vasilevskiy in only three of six games. I don’t expect that to happen against the Avalanche, who are averaging 40.7 shots per game in the postseason. Vasilevskiy will likely face a higher volume – and quality – of shots against Colorado than he did in the Eastern Conference final.
What remains to be seen is how Colorado generates offense against the Lightning. The Avalanche have been an outstanding rush team all season, something Vasilevskiy hasn’t seen much of this postseason. That’s a credit to the Tampa Bay players in front of him. But I do think Colorado will be able to break through on the rush.
Vasilevskiy will be challenged in ways he hasn’t seen yet this postseason. Colorado’s power play has multiple options and the Avalanche have game-breaking players in Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar.
But I think Vasilevskiy’s greatest strength is his mental approach. He could allow nine goals in Game 1 of the series and it wouldn’t faze him. He has shown time and again that he has no problem shrugging off a bad performance.
To me, in this series, Vasilevskiy is the control group while Kuemper is the experimental group. The Lightning know what they’re getting in Vasilevskiy. But I don’t think the Avalanche can say the same about Darcy Kuemper or Pavel Francouz.
And that’s what makes this year’s Stanley Cup Final so intriguing. Vasilevskiy has been there, done that. Kuemper is still in the prove-it stage of his career. And both are four wins away from lifting the Stanley Cup.
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