Top 50 MLB trade-deadline candidates

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Long one of the game’s top catchers, Contreras has elevated his offensive output to new heights so far in 2022. Sporting career-bests in walk rate (11.3%), strikeout rate (20.7%) and hard-hit rate (50.8%), Contreras is slashing a robust .274/.392/.498 with 13 home runs, 17 doubles and a triple. By measure of wRC+, he’s been 50% better than a league-average hitter and one of the 15 best qualified hitters in all of MLB. Contreras hasn’t been considered an elite defensive catcher in his career, and his defensive ratings so far in 2022 are down from their typically closer-to-average standards. He’s at -5 Defensive Runs Saved with a 23% caught-stealing rate (just below the 25% average) and sub-par framing marks.

Contreras himself has voiced a desire to remain in Chicago, but the Cubs have explored extension parameters in the past with no deal coming to fruition. Now this close to the open market, Contreras feels all but certain to change teams between now and Aug. 2, which will formally turn the page on the 2016 championship core. Trades of frontline catchers during a season are rare — learning a new pitching staff on the fly, midseason, is no small task — so the Contreras trade doesn’t have much recent precedent.

Contractual details: $9.6M salary, free agent at season’s end

2. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Royals

The Royals, buried at 20 games under .500 in a relatively weak division, have been working to move past their rebuild for two years. Benintendi’s very presence on the roster is proof of that, as he was one of several win-now moves made by the Kansas City front office in recent years. The big-picture goal hasn’t worked out, but Benintendi’s acquisition has been generally successful. The former first-rounder and top prospect plateaued with the Red Sox in 2019 and cratered in 2020, but he had a solid 2021 season and is in the midst of an excellent campaign at the plate. In 336 plate appearances, Benintendi is hitting .316/.387/.404 — about 29% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. His .363 average on balls in play screams for some regression, but a career-low 13.7% strikeout rate and resurgent 10.4% walk rate are both positives in his favor.

While Benintendi is best-suited for left field work, he can handle center field if needed. His left-handed bat would be a welcome addition to several contenders (e.g. Blue Jays, Yankees), and the Royals are slam-dunk sellers who’ve already shipped out one veteran (Carlos Santana). Expect Benintendi to be one of several others they move.

Contractual details: $8.5M salary, free agent at season’s end

3. Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Nationals

A longtime top prospect whose projected power didn’t really manifest in his first few big league seasons, Bell enjoyed what looked to be a breakout with the Pirates in 2019 when he belted 37 long balls and at last tapped into that home-run pop. Looking more closely at that season, however, Bell limped to the finish with a poor second half, and a terrible 2020 showing led to questions about whether his first-half surge with Pittsburgh in 2019 was a mirage during the juiced-ball season.

That looked like it might be the case when Bell stumbled out of the gates in 2021 following an offseason trade to the Nats, but he absolutely mashed from May onward and hasn’t stopped so far in 2022. Bell is hitting .311/.393/.502 this season. Dating back to May 1 of the previous year, the switch-hitter has a .292/.376/.501 slash in 856 plate appearances. He’s ripped 37 homers, 39 doubles and three triples in that time. Bell has walked at an 11.4% clip in that time, fanned at just a 15.2% pace and has hit well from both sides of the plate. Even though the playoffs were out of the question for the Nats before the season even began, the decision not to trade Bell in the offseason could be prudent, as he might have further raised his stock in the first three months of play.

Contractual details: $10M salary, free agent at season’s end

4. Luis Castillo, RHP, Reds

With several of the other obvious rotation trade candidates — including Castillo’s own teammate — suddenly dealing with health issues, Castillo increasingly looks like the crown jewel of not just the starting pitching market but perhaps the entire trade market. He was slowed in spring training by a shoulder issue and missed the first month of the season while effectively going through a spring training-esque buildup, but Castillo has returned looking like his typically excellent self. Through 11 starts, he’s sitting on a 3.09 ERA (3.23 FIP, 3.67 SIERA) with a 24.7% strikeout rate, an 8.2% walk rate and a 48.3% ground-ball rate. His fastball velocity and strikeout rate were down a bit early in the year as he finished building up at the MLB level, but since May 31, Castillo is averaging 97.2 mph on his heater with a 26.2% strikeout rate.

Dating back to Opening Day 2019, Castillo has a 3.55 ERA in 512 1/3 innings and is averaging just shy of six innings per start. He throws hard, misses bats, issues walks at an average rate and possesses well above-average ground-ball tendencies. This is a playoff-caliber starter who’d be an immediate upgrade to any rotation in Major League Baseball. The Reds have balked at trading him in the past, but the demand this time around could be so great that they can’t resist. Castillo’s trade value is at its apex, and that coalesces with an arbitration salary that’ll soar past $10M for a Reds team that has been working to cut payroll since 2020.

Contractual details: $7.35M salary, arb-eligible through 2023 season

5. Frankie Montas, RHP, Athletics

Up until this week, a spirited debate could be had about whether Castillo or Montas was the true prize of the starting pitching market. Some may still prefer Montas on talent alone, but he’s missing his next start due to shoulder inflammation that required a cortisone injection. The A’s haven’t placed him on the injured list yet, and it’s still possible that he could bounce back from the cortisone shot, pitch well for his next five or so starts and render this shoulder issue a mere blip on the radar. Time will tell, but the current ailment has at least clouded Montas’ outlook a bit.

Given how the rest of their offseason went, it was a surprise that the A’s didn’t trade Montas on the heels of an outstanding 2021 season in which he pitched to a 3.37 ERA with a 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 42.8% grounder rate in 187 innings. He’s been as good — arguably better — so far in 2022. Montas has an 80-game PED suspension as a black mark on his track record, but that was back in 2019 and he’s been outstanding since without ever failing a test. Since 2019, he has 497 2/3 innings of 3.51 ERA ball with comparable velocity and strikeout/walk rates to those of Castillo. If Montas is healthy, expect him to be moved. The cost-cutting A’s aren’t going to extend him and won’t get as much for one season of him in an offseason trade as they would for one-and-a-half seasons prior to the deadline.

Contractual details: $5M salary, arb-eligible through 2023 season

6. Tyler Mahle, RHP, Reds

Like Castillo and Montas, Mahle is controlled cheaply for another season and a half. Unlike them, he got out to a dismal start to the 2022 season, yielding 20 earned runs through his first 25 2/3 innings. Since May 8, Mahle has mirrored his quietly strong 2020-21 form, however, notching a 3.51 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate in his past 11 starts. He still has a ways to go to bring his season ERA back to expected levels — he’s currently at 4.48 — but Mahle owns a 3.94 ERA with impressive strikeout rates and only slightly below-average command through 320 innings since Opening Day 2020.

It’s not an extensive track record, but today’s front offices will care far more about what they project Mahle to do through the end of the 2023 season than about what he did earlier in his career. And while this is a pretty rudimentary split, it’s still noteworthy that Mahle has a 4.90 ERA and 1.71 HR/9 at home over the past three seasons, compared to a 2.93 ERA and 0.52 HR/9 on the road away from his bandbox of a home park.

Unfortunately for Mahle and the Reds, he landed on the injured list this week due to what’s being characterized as a minor shoulder strain. He’s the only injured player included on this list, and that’s because Mahle has already said he’ll return right after the All-Star break. That will give him multiple starts to prove his shoulder’s health, and if he can do so, Mahle could find himself packing up his locker just like his teammate, Castillo.

Contractual details: $5.2M salary, arb-eligible through 2023 season

7. Jose Quintana, LHP, Pirates

An unsurprisingly popular name in early trade chatter, the 33-year-old Quintana looks an awful lot like the 26-year-old version of himself in what’s proving to be a renaissance season. The former White Sox/Cubs hurler has pitched 81 innings of 3.33 ERA ball with above-average command, solid ground-ball tendencies and an only slightly below-average strikeout rate. Quintana is averaging just over five innings per start, but there are plenty of pitching-hungry contenders who’d love to bank on five to six solid innings every fifth day, rather than wondering which depth arm they’ll bring up from Triple-A or how they’ll navigate yet another bullpen game.

The Pirates signed Quintana with just this in mind, and his $2M salary is affordable for any team that wants him. The lefty’s 2020-21 seasons were forgettable, to put thing things nicely, but this is as good as Quintana has looked since 2016.

Contractual details: $2M salary, free agent at season’s end

8. David Robertson, RHP, Cubs

Virtually every contender in baseball will be looking to upgrade its bullpen, and it’s hard to imagine there’s a single such club that wouldn’t want to bring Robertson into the fold. The injury bug finally caught up with the previously ultra-durable Robertson in 2019 after he signed a two-year deal with the Phillies. Robertson made 60 or more appearances and pitched at least 60 innings in each of the nine prior seasons, but forearm and elbow troubles eventually led to Tommy John surgery. Last year’s return — first in the Olympics with Team USA and then with the Rays — was solid but unexciting.

The Cubs took a one-year flier on Robertson and have to be thrilled to have done so. The average 93.5 mph velocity on Robertson’s cutter is the highest it’s been since 2011, and he’s saved a dozen games while pitching to a 1.89 ERA through 33 1/3 innings. Robertson’s 11.1% walk rate is too high, but he’s fanned a third of his opponents this season and is sporting a 50.7% ground-ball rate — second-best of his lengthy career. He’s been lights-out this season, and Robertson has more experience in postseason play and high-pressure situations than pretty much any reliever on the market.

Contractual details: $3.5M salary (plus another $750K of incentives remaining to be unlocked), free agent at season’s end

9. Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers

Very arguably the 1b to Robertson’s 1a among this summer’s class of bullpen rentals, Fulmer is in his first full season as a reliever and has dominated in his new role. The 2016 AL Rookie of the Year’s career has been repeatedly set back by injuries, including Tommy John surgery and an ulnar nerve transposition procedure, but he’s been healthy and brilliant in 2022. Through 31 innings, Fulmer carries a 2.03 ERA with a 25% walk rate against an admittedly bloated 12.1% walk rate. He’s slowly improved his walk rate over the course of the season after a shaky start, though, just as he’s seen his velocity continue to increase (93.6 mph average through May 25; 94.6 mph since).

Fulmer, somewhat remarkably, has given up just one “barreled” ball this season (as defined by Statcast), and he’s in the 87th percentile or better in each of Statcast’s hard-hit rate, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, expected ERA and expected wOBA. He’s been operating as a setup man to Gregory Soto this season but would be a closing option on several contenders.

Contractual details: $4.95M salary, free agent at season’s end

10. Andrew Chafin, LHP, Tigers

When the Tigers signed Chafin to a two-year contract this winter — the second season of which is a player option — it was with the intent of building a strong bullpen for a hopefully competitive club. With an entire rotation on the injured list and unexpected struggles at the plate from several key members of the lineup, however, Detroit has only narrowly managed to avoid the AL Central cellar. Chafin’s performance surely isn’t to blame.

Though he missed three weeks with a groin strain back in April, Chafin has been outstanding out of AJ Hinch’s bullpen. In 24 2/3 innings, he has a 2.55 ERA with a career-best 30.6% strikeout rate against a better-than-average 7.1% walk rate. His 53.4% ground-ball rate is his best since 2017. He’s been every bit as good against righties as he has against lefties. The player option effectively makes Chafin a rental, because unless he gets injured, he’s going to decline that guaranteed year and return to the market in search of another multiyear deal — which he should absolutely find. For now, he’s the best lefty reliever on the trade market (again).

Contractual details: $5.5M salary, $6.5M player option for 2023

11. Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Orioles





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