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Our hockey season all comes down to this, one final series for all the marbles. It has been a fun season here, though the playoffs have dipped into our profits from the regular season a bit.
The hope is we get right in the Stanley Cup Final, and this Lightning-Avalanche series is a tremendous option to do just that.
Earlier this week, I put together some betting futures for the most points recorded in the series. By attacking that market, I think I will likely take it easy with points props in the individual games. My rooting interest is tied up, and I don’t need to stretch myself too thin out of the gate. If you’re looking to find some prop angles for that market before Game 1, by all means take a gander.
There are some shot prop targets that stand out to me — three in fact. Let’s get to them.
Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 SOG (-128 FD)
The best odds for this are under FanDuel’s 5+ shots on goal option. For some reason his odds to go over 4.5 are -134, but we get him at -128 on the same site with that alternate option.
Nathan MacKinnon has been a beast all year and in this postseason. In 14 playoff games, MacKinnon has 31 more shots than the next closest player on this team. With 82 shots total, he’s averaging 5.9 shots per game this postseason.
He’s gone over 4.5 SOG in nine of 14 games during this run, and he’s hit in five of seven at home (71%).
Colorado has averaged 43.14 shots per game at home this postseason, and even if the Avs have a bit of rust in Game 1, that number is still likely to be around the 35+ mark. Just take Andrei Vasilevskiy’s saves line as a barometer, which is set at 32.5 for Wednesday’s game.
Tampa Bay’s biggest shot vulnerability has been to the center position. Of every playoff team this year, the Lightning have allowed the fifth-most shots per game to centers.
That behooves MacKinnon, and the Avalanche captain has shown a proclivity for coming out hot to start a series. In three Game 1s, MacKinnon averages 6 SOG on 10.33 attempts, recording six points.
I’m willing to drink the juice here for Colorado’s top shooter in the biggest game of his career.
Victor Hedman over 2.5 SOG (-125 DK)
A profitable betting approach for us in these playoffs has been to bet defensemen shots against Colorado. We did it with Evan Bouchard of Edmonton last series, Roman Josi of Nashville in Round 1 and mixed in a few St. Louis defenders in between.
Now we get Victor Hedman, who has covered his SOG at a 59% rate this postseason. While that hit rate could be higher, the attempts have remained for Tampa Bay’s top defensemen, averaging 5.9 per game.
The Avalanche rank on the tail end of blocked shots per game this postseason, and while that ranking can be tied to fewer shots in general against them, it confirms my desire to bet on defensemen shots against this team.
Hedman is the logical choice to take advantage, and we do so at comfortable odds here.
Artturi Lehkonen over 2.5 SOG (+110 DK)
We wrap Game 1’s picks with a plus-money play in Artturi Lehkonen. Now, this pick is widely hinged to the health of Nazem Kadri, but all signs as of this writing point to Kadri being out for Game 1.
If you’re a bit more hesitant, then by all means wait for final lineups to be announced. I’m feeling confident Kadri will be out, and I want to jump on this bet while we have this +110 floating out here.
You may remember that we bet on Lehkonen in Game 4 last series, as we noticed his role growing when Kadri is out. If we include Game 3 of the Western Conference Final, which Kadri was knocked out of in less than a minute, Lehkonen has gone for three or more shots on goal in eight of his past 10 games without Kadri in the lineup.
In those games, Lehkonen averages 3.5 SOG and has gone for 5+ shots four times. He would be a terrific ladder candidate for this game if that’s your thing.
Lehkonen was steady for Colorado last series, covering his SOG in Games 2-4, so we load him up to build on that momentum.
Let’s start this Stanley Cup Final in style and cash some bets. Good luck, and enjoy the game!
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