College football teams that might surprise in 2022

The surprise is not that Arkansas will be good in 2022; it’s that the Razorbacks might be ready to take the next step. In 2021, Arkansas went 9-4 for its first winning season since 2016, and won a bowl game. This season, the Razorbacks host Alabama and LSU, and should feel confident of beating Texas A&M in Arlington, Texas, for a second consecutive season. Nearly all of Arkansas’ offensive line returns, and quarterback KJ Jefferson looks to build on a strong 2021, when he threw for 2,676 with 24 touchdowns and just four interceptions. While also rushing for a team-leading 664 and six scores. Is second place in the SEC West a stretch?

In 2021, Cal lost five of its first six games, but finished 4-2 with wins over Stanford and USC. Meanwhile, the Bears lost five games by seven points or fewer a year ago. Now, it won’t be easy, but there’s reason to believe Justin Wilcox’s group can find one more victory than it had last season, qualify for a bowl and perhaps tussle with Washington, Washington State and Oregon State for a top-three spot in the Pac-12 North behind front-runner Utah. Former It will be interesting to see if former Purdue quarterback Jack Plummer (3,405 career passing yards, 26 touchdowns) can claim the starting job.

There’s an argument to be made that Seminoles coach Mike Norvell is on the hot seat with his 8-13 mark over two seasons. He inherited a mess, though, and going from three wins on a nine-game season from 2020 to 5-7 in 2021, is progress. According to ESPN writer Bill Connelly , FSU returns nearly 80 percent of its production from last year, when it beat Miami, and won at North Carolina and Boston College. With Jordan Travis (1,539 yards, 15 touchdowns; 530 rushing yards, seven TDs) back under center and practically all their entire offensive line returning, along with Jammie Robinson and a veteran secondary, at least seven wins and a bowl bid sounds about right for the Seminoles.

Yes, Kansas. We’re serious. Well, maybe not bowl-eligible serious. But perhaps serious enough to believe that the Jayhawks can win more than two games. Which was progress in 2021, especially with that memorable overtime victory at Texas. According to ESPN, Kansas ranks fourth in returning production (84 percent) and returns 14 projected starters on either side of the ball. If the Jayhawks can manage one more victory than 2021 in Lance Leipold’s second season as coach, celebrate like they just won a national title.

Inconsistency has plagued the Kansas State program of late. The Wildcats haven’t posted back-to-back winning seasons since 2016 and ’17. They won eight games last season and return star running back Deuce Vaughn (1,404 yards, 18 touchdowns; 49 receptions, 468 receiving yards) and welcome former Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez (8,491 career passing yards; 2,301 rushing yards, 80 total touchdowns). There’s also some solid returning defensive talent that could make Kansas State a serious contender for a top three or four finish in the Big 12.

In all honesty, the path of LSU’s 2022 season can go in various directions. Brian Kelly left a cushy job at Notre Dame to take over a Tigers’ program that’s 11-12 since going 15-0 and winning its fourth official national championship to conclude the 2019 season. The Tigers also saw an exodus of players, but defensive linemen Masson Smith and Ali Gaye (combined 6 1/2 sacks in 2021) and linebacker BJ Ojulari (55 tackles, seven sacks, 11 1/2 tackles for loss) pace a defense that allowed 26.6 points per game last season. All that said, a 5-0 start is possible for a program that at least believes it’s in a better place than a year ago. 

After seven straight seasons of winning at least eight games, Memphis went 6-6 in 2021 — with half of those victories coming in the first three games. The Tigers struggled with turnovers (19) last season, but Seth Henigan was undoubtedly a bright spot as a freshman, throwing for 3,332 yards with 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions. That experience, plus a deep and talented backfield and All-American Athletic Conference safety Quindell Johnson (243 total tackles, six interceptions in three seasons), should have the Tigers optimistic about returning to their winning ways. Seven home games should also help.

Say what one will about how Mario Cristobal left Oregon for Miami, and the manner in which he did. But, there is plenty of buzz surrounding the Hurricanes, and what Cristobal returning to his coaching roots can mean for the program. Especially when it comes to recruiting, that said, don’t expect Miami to win a national title this season. But with quarterback Tyler Van Dyke (2,931 yards, 25 touchdowns, six interceptions) and a host of talented skill players back, the Hurricanes should be in the hunt to win a relatively wide-open ACC Coastal Division. 

Last season, it was Northern Illinois who surprised by returning to Mid-American prominence by going from zero to nine wins for a league title. Miami, meanwhile, finished second in the MAC East Division for a fourth straight winning campaign. Expect the RedHawks to be the favorite in the league this season, even ahead of NIU. A total of 11 projected starters return, highlighted by quarterback Brett Gabbert, who in 26 collegiate games, has thrown for 5,443 yards with 41 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. A favorable home schedule will help, and the Nov. 16 meeting at NIU could be a MAC title-game preview.

The Bulldogs certainly have experience on their side in 2022. According to ESPN, Mississippi State returns 80 percent of its production or 16 projected starters from last year’s group that went 7-6. Sure, the SEC West Division is top-heavy with Alabama and Texas A&M, but the Bulldogs could very much be in the mix for a top-three finish with previously mentioned Arkansas and LSU. Meanwhile, versatile junior Jo’quavious Marks (416 rushing yards; 83 receptions, 502 receiving yards; nine total touchdowns) is a name to remember. 

Yes, we’re going there. This might be the year Scott Frost  enjoys success with his beloved Cornhuskers. Whether it will be too little, or too late remains to be seen. He’s 15-29 without a bowl appearance during his five seasons at Nebraska, has been on the hot seat for a while and has the fan base in tatters. So why now? For starters, Frost is working with a relatively new offensive coaching staff, and ex-Texas quarterback Casey Thompson (2,113 yards, 24 touchdowns, nine interceptions) to improve a unit that scored 23 or fewer points seven times in 2021. Meanwhile, stud linebacker Garrett Nelson (102 career tackles, 17 1/2 tackles for loss, 6 1/2 sacks) and TCU-transfer defensive end Ochaun Mathis (15 1/2 career sacks 30 1/2 tackles for loss) should anchor a potentially stout defense.

The Tar Heels had their moments during Sam Howell’s three seasons at quarterback. However, they never won more than eight games in any of those years, and were a disappointing 6-7 in 2021. Now, replacing Howell won’t be easy, but Carolina should benefit from three straight strong recruiting classes, and the return of Gene Chizik as defensive coordinator — a spot he held in 2015, when the program went 11-3 and it held seven opponents to fewer than 20 points. Plus, the ACC’s Coastal Division doesn’t have a clear favorite, leaving Mack Brown’s group a potential sleeper.

We’ll save the future of the Pac 12 talk for later, and focus on the field this season. Oregon State is coming off its first winning season (7-6) in eight years, and has enough experienced talent to build on that success, and make serious noise in the North Division. Washington, Washington State and Oregon have new coaches, Stanford is struggling as a program and the aforementioned Cal is a wild card. The key for the Beavers is improving a defense that allowed opponents to convert on 50.3 percent of their third-down plays. On the other side of the ball, Oregon State boasts three of the league’s best offensive linemen in tackle Joshua Gray, center Jake Levengood and guard Brandon Kipper.

The Boilermakers are poised to build on last season’s 9-4 campaign (best since 2003), which concluded with three straight wins, including a bowl victory over Tennessee. The next step? How about challenging Wisconsin and Iowa for the top spot in the Big Ten West Division? With Aidan O’Connell (3,712 yards, 28 touchdowns, 11 interceptions) and tight end Payne Durham (45 catches, 467 yards, six touchdowns) back, plus a talented defensive front that helped hold five Big Ten opponents to 20 or fewer points, the Boilermakers are certainly a team to watch. 

Shane Beamer took the Gamecocks’ program in the right direction with a 7-6 record in 2021 — after winning six games the previous two seasons. There’s even more excitement with former Oklahoma quarterback and Heisman Trophy candidate Spencer Rattler (4,595 passing yards, 40 touchdowns, nine rushing TDs). Not to mention a veteran offensive line back in the mix for a South Carolina squad that could be good enough to finish among the top three teams in SEC East Division if things fall into place.

Sticking with SEC East. Reigning national champion Georgia is the clear-cut favorite again in 2022. But after that, things get interesting. Tennessee expects to be in the conversation for second place after Josh Heupel led a seemingly dysfunctional program to a 7-6 record in 2021. According to ESPN, the Volunteers return 77 percent of their production (13 combined projected starters). Hendon Hooker (2,945 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, three interceptions) might be the best SEC quarterback not named Bryce Young and pass rusher Byron Young (5 1/2 sacks, 11 1/2 tackles for loss) is a beast to stop.

It’s only Year 2 of the Steve Sarkisian experiment at Texas, but desperation mode has set in. A six-game losing streak — which included that defeat to Kansas — led to a highly disappointing 5-8 2021 for the Longhorns. Yet, there is reason to believe they will be much better in 2022. Running back Bijon Robinson (1,127 yards, 11 touchdowns) is a likely Heisman Trophy candidate and Xavier Worthy (62 receptions, 981 yards, 12 TDs) is among the nation’s top receivers. However, the Longhorns’ defense, which allowed 31. points and 201.6 rushing yards last year, must be better. Baylor is confident, Oklahoma State has high expectations, but Oklahoma has questions. These Longhorns are nine-win good, but have to live up to the hype finally.

With Lincoln Riley in charge and elite transfers in quarterback Caleb Williams (Oklahoma), Biletnikoff Award-winning receiver Jordan Addison (Pittsburgh) and veteran running back Travis Dye (Oregon) it would seem trendy to think the Trojans will not only top their nine-win total from the past two seasons, but perhaps challenge for a College Football Playoff berth. Yes, USC should be better. And, it makes this list because improvement seems destined, but the Trojans’ defense is a question mark and they must face Utah, UCLA and Oregon State on the road. 

In 2019. Virginia reached the ACC Championship game, then two .500 seasons followed and longtime coach Bronco Mendenhall opted to retire. However, hope is not lost for the Cavaliers. Former Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott finally gets his shot at a head-coaching gig , and Brennan Armstrong (4,449 yards, 31 touchdowns, 10 interceptions; nine rushing touchdowns) just might end up being the most productive quarterback in the ACC — or at least the up-for-grabs ACC Coastal Division — this season.

There’s really nowhere for the Huskies to go but up after that highly disappointing 4-8 season of 2021. It was sad that things with Jimmy Lake didn’t work out, but new coach Kalen DeBoer, whose 10-3 2021 Fresno State squad averaged 33.4 points, seems like an excellent choice to help to revive a Washington offense that scored just 21.5 per contest last season. The addition of transfer quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is intriguing, while dynamic linebacker Zion Tupuola-Fetui  is one of the nation’s best — if he can stay healthy.