Analyzing Jimmy Garoppolo’s next-team odds

Most people thought Jimmy Garoppolo would be traded long ago. Yet, with barely more than a month until the start of the NFL regular season, Garoppolo is still a 49er. At this point, it’d be easy to assume that Garoppolo will remain on the team for at least a few weeks of the season. Some sportsbooks disagree with that narrative.

The 49ers have the fourth-best odds to snag Garoppolo? Huh? I mean, I’m assuming that this is trying to determine where he’ll be Week 1, and if that’s the case, I’d put a bunch of money on San Fran. The rumor mill isn’t exactly sizzling around Garoppolo, and if any team really wanted the two-time Super Bowl champ (as a backup), a deal likely would’ve been reached already, right?

How does every other team look though? The Browns being the favorites make sense. The NFL doesn’t want Deeshaun Watson to play this season, so the Browns acquiring Garoppolo would be a safety valve for the team. Considering Cleveland even made sure they wouldn’t have to spend much money on Watson in 2022 for fear he would get suspended, a serviceable quarterback like Garoppolo with a hefty price tag would probably work out.

The Giants make sense, too. In fact, I’m stunned they haven’t been rumored more heavily to be involved in the Garoppolo market. That said, the fact that the interest just hasn’t appeared to be there makes me think there’s no chance the team moves on from Daniel Jones this season. While Garoppolo might be a better quarterback than Jones, Jones is cheaper and won’t cost the team any resources. Regardless of whether or not the Giants have Jones or Garoppolo at quarterback, they will not be a serious playoff contender. So why spend resources to keep your team in pretty much the same situation? Just draft or sign a quarterback next year.

G/O Media may get a commission

28% Off

Apple AirPods Pro Wireless Earbuds

Music+
These are the pinnacle of Apple AirPod design, and feature active noise cancelling, a transparency mode for when you need to hear what’s around you, spatial audio for accuracy, adaptive EQ, and are even sweat resistant.

The Texans make absolutely zero sense. Basically, everything I said about the Giants can be said about the Texans as well, except Texans’ quarterback Davis Mills showed some potential last year. Unlike Jones, Mills might actually be good enough to start for an NFL franchise. He was arguably the most efficient rookie quarterback last year, and at his third-round rookie deal price tag, the Texans are more than comfortable giving Mills the reins in 2022. They’re in a rebuild. Garoppolo will not pull them out, and Mills might even be a better option than Garoppolo. Jimmy G is not heading to Texas.

The Seahawks at +1000 make sense. As desperate as the ’Hawks are for a quarterback, the 49ers have expressed that the price tag for Seattle would be substantially higher than it would be for a non-divisional opponent. The Seahawks have also stood strong against giving the 49ers any resources when forcing them to keep Garoppolo would put the 49ers in a bad cap situation. Still, if the 49ers came to the Seahawks with a good deal, the ’Hawks would be inclined to take it. It would be at a much lower price than the Niners could get somewhere else though, so I actually think Seattle’s odds here are reasonable.

One team I’m surprised isn’t here at all is the Pittsburgh Steelers. I’ve long thought the Steelers would be the perfect fit for Garoppolo. Mike Tomlin has never relied on quarterback mobility to extend plays, plus Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth would provide similar tools to what Garoppolo was used to in San Francisco. Combined with the fact that Mitch Trubisky has looked worse at camp than an underprepared roast beef sandwich from Arby’s after a week in the sun, Garoppolo makes sense. The Steelers have playoff aspirations in 2022, and Garoppolo would be a clear upgrade in their quarterback room. I know the rumors haven’t been there, but the Steelers make too much sense from a football standpoint to have them off this graphic altogether.

Still, as I said earlier, Garoppolo to remain on the 49ers’ roster through Week 1 is the best bet for my money. Teams seem worried about his shoulder and reliance on Kyle Shanahan’s system, and the 49ers haven’t gotten an offer that they believe matches the value that Garoppolo brings. With Garoppolo cleared to practice, the Niners need to start letting him work out for opposing teams, because until they see his progress up close, the deal the Niners want for their quarterback won’t get done.