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As we wait for training camp to begin in the NFL, we’re taking a look around the league the next two weeks to see how divisional odds shake out, along with the futures bets we like the most.
[Previously: NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West | AFC East | AFC North]
Of the four divisions in the AFC, the AFC South feels like the one without a true Super Bowl contender. That doesn’t mean much when looking at divisional futures, but it felt worth mentioning all the same. Let’s dig in.
To Win the AFC South Betting Odds
- Indianapolis Colts (-115 FD)
- Tennessee Titans (+170 DK)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (+750 FD)
- Houston Texans (+3000 DK)
The Colts are the betting favorite after swapping Carson Wentz for Matt Ryan at quarterback. Indianapolis made the postseason in 2020 and were the first team out this past season, finishing 9-8.
Tennessee said goodbye to AJ Brown but are coming off a 12-5 season that saw them go 5-1 in the AFC South. Don’t sleep on the Titans here.
Jacksonville brings about some intrigue with a new coach and young quarterback, while Houston has a few years left to climb out of the hole that the Deshaun Watson saga created. Neither team exceeded four wins last season and are longshots to drastically improve in 2022.
Houston Texans: What to expect
Houston has the longest odds of any team in the NFL to win the division, which is quite an indictment of the quality of this Texans team, given the relative lack of power emanating from the AFC South.
It’s hard to find too many positives from a Houston team that went 4-13 last season and has brought back many of the same faces. Davis Mills will be given another chance at quarterback, with some believing he has what it takes to grow into a quality starter.
Brandin Cooks is the most talented player on this offense and is a fine option for betting and fantasy, but not to lead a team to a winning season.
I like the Derek Stingley pick to help revitalize the defense, but no, I’m not betting on Houston to win this division and I recommend you don’t either.
Jacksonville Jaguars: What to expect
I’m quite intrigued about Jacksonville this season. In the instant gratification world we live in, it can be easy to quickly sour on a guy’s potential after a tough rookie season.
That feels like what has happened with Trevor Lawrence here, who has been well regarded as a can’t-miss prospect for years now. Lawrence had a tough rookie campaign with the Jaguars, as you might expect for a young passer in an inefficient offense who lost his coach almost immediately to your classic “grind at a college bar” fiasco that so often plagues family men.
I’m hopeful that the arrival of Doug Pederson will do wonders for both this offense and Lawrence in particular. Are the Jaguars going to win the division? Doubtful, but they do have some solid pieces here. Marvin Jones and Christian Kirk, along with Zay Jones and Laviska Shenault, is a solid receiver room. Super excited for what Travis Etienne can bring to the offense after missing his entire rookie season.
Pederson helped mold Carson Wentz into an MVP in his second year, an award he would have won if he didn’t tear his ACL in Week 14 of 2017. Is it crazy to think a similar growth could come for Lawrence?
I like Jacksonville to be more competitive, at the least. 3-14 won’t cut it again, and after investing a pair of first-round picks into the defense, the hope is that the Jags bring about a semblance of balance this year.
Tennessee Titans: What to expect
Is the Tennessee reign in the AFC South in danger? The Titans have won two straight division crowns and have been to the postseason in three straight seasons.
Last year, the Titans went 12-5 despite missing Derrick Henry for nine games, an impressive feat. It’s pretty incredible that Henry piled on 937 rushing yards in just eight games played.
The big move out of Tennessee this offseason was trading star WR AJ Brown to the Eagles, opting to replace his production with Robert Woods and rookie Treylon Burks. This trade allows the team to devote financial commitments to other areas of the roster.
The Titans have a strong safety tandem, intriguing defenders elsewhere, and a solid O-line with one of the best running backs in the NFL. The main concern comes back to Ryan Tannehill. By PFF standards, Tannehill had a strong season, rated as the eighth-best quarterback in the NFL. PFF isn’t the end-all, but it’s interesting to see how they felt he did this year.
I like Tannehill, but I don’t like him enough to back his team to win the division. I think the Titans take a step back in the standings this season. The AFC is tough, and their first-place schedule will do them no favors. They’ve drawn games against the Bills, Bengals and Packers that won’t make things easy. I’m out on the Titans winning the AFC South this season.
Indianapolis Colts: What to expect
The Colts have had a quality team for a few years now, with the biggest issue around the quarterback position. Carson Wentz cost Indy a spot in the postseason last year with two straight losses to wrap the year.
Indianapolis was able to ship him off, and in his stead comes Matt Ryan from Atlanta. Ryan is getting up there in years, recently turning 37, but he should have a few seasons of quality football left in him.
Ryan will take what he can get and not lose you games, more than you can say about their last quarterback. Handing the ball off to Jonathan Taylor, who runs behind one of the strongest offensive lines in football will make Ryan’s job easier.
Michael Pittman is a talented receiver, and the defense is led by All-Pro Darius Leonard. I like the Colts chances to win their first division title since 2014 this year.
Final betting word: AFC South
The pick for me is betting the Colts to win the AFC South at -115. You’d like plus-money, no doubt, but it still feels like the best value on the table.
Matt Ryan brings about optimism in Indianapolis, and with a softer schedule and a powerful rushing attack, the Colts should win double-digit games in 2022.
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